Weather Data Interpretations

I have been rolling around in my head how I planned to show the value of my data collection, in relation to certain issues I continue to see on the course.  As I write this, what I have seen from the weather the past couple of weeks, has played a part in what I write about today.  

As I related in my last post, I have been tracking certain weather phenomenon over the many years at my facility.  A recent discovery this past week is one that I have been trying to track yearly.

                       



Forsythia bushes are good indicators for the average layman as to be a good time for making preemergent applications for crabgrass.  The upper left picture was taken this past week on February 14th.  I'm a little surprised about seeing these buds just starting to swell this early in the season, especially with the winter we have had so far.  The picture on the upper right and to the left are from 2017 when we actually saw some visible blooming of the bush from a distance.  We hadn't seen that quite yet this season, but looking at the 10 day forecast, I'm expecting it any time soon.    

Some stats to ponder:  So far in 2018 we saw the buds just starting to swell on February 14th.  This past January our average low temperature was -4 degrees below the average low of 22 degrees.  The average high we saw for January was average.  As of February 13th the average low was -7 degrees below the average, and the average high was -8 below the average.  (Of course after the high in the 70's on February 15th that could have changed).

On February 13th, 2017, as the picture shows above, we were seeing the Forsythia actually blooming.  That didn't surprise me much, because in January of 2017 our average high temperatures where 6 degrees above the average, and the average low temperatures were 4 degrees above the average as well.  In February the average high was running almost 10 degrees above the average, and the average low was 11 degrees above the average low.  A total opposite of what we are seeing this year.

In 2016 we saw Forsythia buds on February 22nd.  Our January temperatures were average and the February temperatures were above average, + 3 above the low, + 5 above the high.        

In 2015 I didn't see the Forsythia bloom because I was out due to a surgery, but in 2014 we didn't see the Forsythia bloom until March 21st, and in 2013, we didn't see the Forsythia bloom until March 12th.  

While trained professionals do not usually rely on just using Forsythia blooming as their set in stone guide to start making preemergent applications, I do use the appearance of blooms as a guide to step up my soil temperature tracking and logging them into my weather logs.  When I take soil temperatures to monitor for preemergent applications, I will take them at a 2" depth.  I also take them in a USGA sand based green, and I know sand seems to heat up quicker then native soils and will cool down also.  As I analyzed past springs soil temperatures, I would see even with some warm temperatures and mild springs much fluctuation in the day to day readings.

As I studied applications dates and compared them to soil temperatures, what I did find was on some applications, such as green applications for crabgrass and goosegrass, I was very consistent with application dates over the years, but they didn't correlate always with soil temperatures in regards to when those applications should have been made.  And then I wondered, was it the application timing that caused some failure and allowed goosegrass to appear?  Or as I noted in some years, could it be something else?  Such as in 2017, we had 15.5" of rain, in May 8.8" of rain, in August 7.4" of rain?  In 2015, we had 8" of rain in May, 6.6" in June, 8.4" in July and 7.4" in August.  Is the rain playing a part as well?

 






When it came to other areas of the golf course such as tees or fairways, I observed more of a consistency problem with application timings.  Some years I felt timing was excellent, and other years I know the timing of applications had to lead to some of the issues.  What I did wonder was these areas being soil instead of sand based, did soil temperatures and/or rain play parts in those issues?  The other question I have and can't answer, was, yes we seem to get goosegrass every year, and it is most noticeable in certain areas where it will be worse than other areas, but I also don't have true data from season to season how bad was it?  As I analyze my programs, using this past data, I have given myself more questions than I had before.

So moving forward to take advantage of the data and evaluate my programs, I am going to work on taking soil temperatures from both the sand based greens and also the soil based tee/fairway areas.  When it comes to figuring out the severity of weed problems, I will work on finding a way to document the amount of weeds in a given area.  I will also map, especially in fairways, higher density weed populations and look at treating those areas with different products to gage their effectiveness.

I will discuss in my next post, certain weed problems in certain areas on the course.  I will use my data, from weather to application dates, to products, to discuss past issues, and try to figure out solutions and conduct trials to find ways to improve course conditions and develop programs that work.  Hopefully those with more experience can pass along some suggestions.

Thanks so much for reading!

Mel